RIGHT STRATEGIES IN EQUITY INVESTMENTS

I have been investing in equity for about 15 years and and of these 15 years I can honestly say that I have made losses in 13 years.Of course when I started dealing in stock market, I started trading on a small scale because I have little savings and have little knowledge of stocks. It was more based on hearsay, rumours and newspaper reports on individual stocks.As the market was relative new to Malaysians, you required introductions before you can open a trading account then.Since I have little savings, I can only trade through buying and selling of equity and at that time the brokers allowed you have to have T + 5 transaction days or 6 workings for trading purposes,that is you have 5 workings from the day you purchase a lot (1000 shares) to decide when you wished to disposed the lot of shares.More often you are able to make a little profit during good days at the stock market.
More often when the stock markets turned negative, I have to sell at a loss because I do not have the savings to buy up the stocks.Although at a later stage I was made to be awared that I should look at the fundamentals of the stocks, I continued to play on speculative penny stocks based on the misleading though logical thoughts that these speculative penny stocks may one days surged and that the returns will be many fold and that if the market turns negative, the cutting losses will not be too much too bear.More often I continued to incur small trading losses which outweighs the small profit during the 13 years.Although the losses are not huge but it was significant as a cumulative amount.During these 13 years I have tried to trade on blue chip counters but it did not turn out well for me.
Based on the experiences and knowledge I have gained, I have changed my strategy as listed belows:
1.Stop Trading. Currently it is T + 3 working days.This translate into 3 trading days which is too short to make a decent gain.It may take at least 1 – 3 months for a stock to appreciate or depreciate and this longer period of holding the stocks will give you the options to exit for more bigger capital appreciation of the stock.
2.Buy Stocks that have good dividend policy. Companies that have good dividend policy are usually wll managed and have good track record of dividend payment for the past many years.These companies are usually very profitable and considered blue chip stocks in their own industries. Dividends received will add to the growth of your wealth and can be set aside for reinvestment to increase the returns of your investment.
3.Buy on market fear. Timing is important in every endeavour or investment decision making even though one must recognised and accept that it is impossible to achieve perfect timing for most of us.
The good example is recent round of market crashes in late 2008 and early 2009.Those who buy after the first market crash in late 2008 were not as fortunate to those who buy after second market crash in early 2009 but by July 2009, most of these buyers would have made decent gain provided they buy the stocks that have good fundamentals, good profit and dividend track records and these companies are well managed.
4. Sell on full or fair stock valuation. It is usually the greed that hold backs the investors from selling even though the stocks have significantly appreciate and have or almost reach the fair stock value.Selling in or during the bull run in equity market may become more stressfull because man would usually like to achieve the optimun or maximun profitability.One of the tools is to look at the price earning ratios by sectors and if you have that gut instinct (not the greed instinct or recommendations by analysts), make a decision when to sell.
5.Dont buy penny stocks.There are several reasons why these stocks have become penny stocks due to mismanagements, accumulated losses over several years, products or services that lags behind the advances in technology and solutions, pending legal suits, lack of transparency in Corporate Governance, poor dividend records etc
6.Buy stocks that are invested by big pension funds or large unit trust companies.Big pension funds usually outsourced their investment fund to top and established Investment bankers or brokerage which have their own research teams to carry out indepth research into targeted companies’ management & visions, performance, expertise,corporate governance & transparency,corporate policies, expectations & plans for expansion or otherwise, sucession plan, future prospect & challenges,etc. Similarly unit trust companies also have their own research teams to help the management in their equity investment decision. Hence it is relative safe to invest in stocks that are picked by these big pension funds and unit trust companies.These information are readily available in their annual or quarterly reports disclosed to the shareholders in compliance with the existing financial regulations.
7.Diversified your stock portfolio. The stocks are usually classified under the following major sectors:
a)Trading & Services
b)Property
c)Financial
d)Industrial
e)Construction
f)Technology
g)Mining
h)Consumer
i)Plantations
It would be wise to spread your risks over all the major stock sectors instead of heavily invested in one or two sectors only because though all sectors are subject to risks, it is usually unlikely all the sectors will turn to negative sentiments at the same time under normal market conditions.
8)Do not chase after the stocks whose prices are on the uptrend.This is to avoid being caught in a situation of holding stocks purchase at a relative high price compare to its net asset worth and earnings.Be patient and wait for the price to settle much lower due to external factors that beyond the control of the stock market before investing.
As a guide, the stock market cycle from boom to bust market cvompletes in 8 to 10 years.
9)Do not rush to invest in stocks that are falling.When stocks suffer shocks due to bad news or factors that affect its profitability, these stocks are known to fall continously for many days and last up to 2 weeks before it settle at a new support level.Take a cautious stance and research into the stock before making decision of investing
10)Reinvest the gain. Gains made and realised from equity market should be set aside for future investments when the prices of the equity have fallen to a relatively cheap.Proceeds (gain & original sum) may be temporary invested in non-equity investments such as money market and bonds.Only profitable equity investment should be liquidated and invest in non-equity market.As the equity market is subject to boom and bust cycle, it is apt to protect your wealth in equity market by minimising the write-down of equity price and at the same time prepare for reinvestment with the war-chest of ready cash during the bust cycle.
11)Read and listen extensively the business news. Continous and extensive reading and listening of business developments via internets, local and foreign media reportings will add knowledge that will you to make wise investment making decisions.You will not be easily influenced by rumours and analysts recommendations to buy or sell stocks.
12) Allow time for your investments to grow and bear fruits.Hence do not monitor the price movements on hourly basis, by doing so, it will add unnecessary anxieties and stress knowing that price of good stocks do not usually soar or drop dramatically. Just like a young tree, it needs time to grow bigger, taller and strong in an environment similar to stock market, that is unpredictable.When the tree bear fuits, these fruits which represent gains needs to be harvested when there are ripe for harvest. Fruits not harvested will fall to the ground and damaged in the process, bring no benefit to the owner.Be patient and gives time for your investment to grow and bear dividends or capital appreciation.
Hence give time to your investments to grow and bear fruits between 2 – 4 years which varies according to your entry point into equity market. For example if you have invested during the recession period, you will probably take 3-4 years to realise high capital appreciation compare to one who invested in recovery stage who will probably take 2-3 years to reach the same price but the the gains will most likely be smaller due to timing of the investment.
13) Determine the purpose of your investment. The purpose of investment is to grow your wealth to achieve your dreams such as to purchase a piece of land, a bigger property, increase retirement fund, to fund your children education, to set up a trust fund, to purchase a dream car etc.Hence one must set a target for your investments, say RM100,000 capital gain (excluding the original capital) or RM 500,000 capital gain( if one has higher original capital).
14)Do not utilise more than 50% of your pension money or savings into equity market especially you have dependants.Balance of 50% pension moneyshould remain in the pension fund because it pays higher dividends than the banks and is more secure if one is not financially disciplined and for emergency cases.High returns are accompany by high risks and unpredictable market. Time is a very essential factor that will determine whether you will reap the high capital appreciation ( high yield) because it may take 1 year, 2 year and even much longer time to reach that stage and hence if you do not have the patience and time, the returns will definitely be unsatisfactory.
The strategies listed here is not exhaustive but should be adequate for a novice in equity investment to adopt if one is to avoid unnecesary monetary losses and start making money to grow your wealth.

WE NEED MALAYSIANS LEADERS WITH GOOD CHARACTERS

Most of the Malaysian leaders lack character and that the reason for the current state of political climate of confusion and repression. The confusion is due to flip flop and lack of political will in decision making by the legislators at the state and national levels.The repression is due to concentration of powers in the Central Government which have been misused to protect the power to be and those with vested interest resulting in corruption taking roots at all levels of the Government. The public has perceived that the present coalition parties in the ruling government at the Central level has been tainted with corrupt practices and misuse of power and unless ruling coalition parties take drastic takes to introduces reforms that truly wipe out the corruption practices as a way of life and procedures that protects human rights,freedom of religion,respect for laws and outlawing racial and gender discriminations.
When one talk of character, all will identify him as one who has characters of honesty, incorruptible, believe in justice, good moral, civil,thoughtful, caring , humble and man of honor.
When one enter into political arena whether as a supporter or contender for public post to gain or to achieve gain for onself,then that person does not have character and do not deserve the voters support and the voters must take their rights to vote very seriously because a wrong or irresponsible decision will have dire consequences on our future generations and the country future herself.
Those who love and care about Malaysia should always support party that have or are led by leaders with character. In DAP we have leaders like Chen Man Hing, Lim Kit Siang, Karpal Singh, Lim Guan Eng, Dr Tan Seng Giaw, Teresa Kok and many others. In PKR we have Khalid Ibrahim, Zaid Ibrahim and in Gerakan we have Dr Koh Tsu Koon. In UMNO we have past leaders like Tunku Abdul Rahman, Tun Abdul Razak, Tun Hussien Onn. In MIC we have past leader like Tun Sambanthan while in MCA we have past leader like Tun Tan Chen Lock and now Datuk Ong Tee Keat.These are the leaders I perceived possessed characters that I have mentioned above.
Leaders with characters make great leaders who have contributed so much to the nation’s progress, peace, harmony and democracy. Take for example of Malaysia First Prime Minister, Tengku Abdul Rahman who had governed the country well and as far I can recalled under his government, racial and religion division and discrimination almost non- existence compared to prevalent racial and religion discrimination and this is because he believed that there is only one race called Malaysian despite the diversity in ethnicity, religion, culture and languages.There is no such thing as casting the Malaysian into Bumiputra and Non-Bumiputra status.Leaders who believed that powers whether it is political or economical powers that will shape Malaysia into a great country or a developed country will be disappointed to hear the truth only great leaders with good characters to whom we can trust with the future generations’ wealth and rights can manage our country well in the future or can we trust our future generations’ wealth and rights to crooks who can squandered these wealth and povertise the country and citizen rights oppressed.Therefore it is a serious business or cause to ensure our country will produce new leaders with good characters to protect the legacy left behind by previous leaders.
1. Honest Leaders
Leaders of today and tommorrow should be honest.What do I mean honest? Honest means do not lie or cover up and admit one mistake without blaming.When a leader makes an insensitive remarks, admit one mistake and extend one’s apology without blaming on media for wrong interpretation.When one commit a wrong or knowing someone has commited a wrong, do not lie or conspire to cover up but to come forward to expose the wrong. Doing nothing means to conspire to cover up the wrong.Leaders who behave they have nothing to apolgise , behave like they are perfect or one without mistakes, are the one we should be wary of. No men are angel.
2 Incorruptible Leaders
Incorruptible character means one who will not be tempted by offers of wealth and positions.Leaders who are corrupt are dangerous because they can betray their country by siphoning away the country reserves or collaborate the country enemies. One classic example is the betrayal of China by some of her leaders who collaborate with the Japanese Government after the fall of Ching Dynasty resulting in the invasion of China by Japan.Patriotism is a form of public display of emotion of love for the country and not an incorruptible character as explained above. The past and current scandal such as PKA scandal(Port Klang Authority) was reported by the media of the probable conspiracy by interested parties to enrich themselves with falsify claims and bills resulting the cost of the PKA project to soar and possible losses totalling in billions ringgit.
3. Believe in Justice
Calls for Justice are very common in almost every country in the world.Some calls for justice are much louder say in Myamar, Zimbabwe, compared to countries like Britain, France, United States.Don’t these countries have judiciary system to establish justice?Although these countries have judiciary system, it is the judges who are usually appointed by ruling party that does not conform to the spirit of Justice and this is compunded by the facts that some of these laws are bad laws designed or legislated to protect the interest of those in the corridor of powers.Hence it is important that Judiciary must be independent of the Executive Power of the Government.To ensure its independence, it must be enshrined in the country constitution and accorded an independent status that can only be scrapped together with the whole constitution.An enactment that governs its role, responsibility, powers to appoint and remove judges and court staff, remuneration and benifits must be approved by at least two thirds of the elected political representatives.A truly independent judiciary will not bring justice but also helps in check and balances for ruling goverment excesses.The recent report in Global AntiCorruption Index has shown that 70% Malaysian did not believe Malaysian Anti Corruption Agency is serious and professional in tackling the corrupt practices and to add salt to it, most Malaysians believe it is part of Federal Government machinery to undermine the PR administration of 5 states.The Independent Board overseeing the MACC must be given more enforcement powers to ensure MACC fulfill its objectives.Similarly Suhakam( Human Rights Commission) must be reinforced with more enforcement powers to ensure violation of human rights are prohibited so as to walk the talk instead of talking to deaf ears.
4. Good morals.
I accept that man or woman are not perfect but there is a minimun good morals that must be displayed by the leaders or public figures such not involved in adultery, sexual gratifications, immoral sexual activities, ponography and sexual discriminations.How can the present and future generations respects such leaders who are supposed to set a good example.Leaders are given the privileges by the people to lead and it is not their rights to lead and hence leaders who are tainted by immoral activities whether proven or not must step aside even though their leadership qualities are proven.Clinging to power will only bring more instability to his leadership.
5. Be Civil
Law of jungles (nature) implies the survival of the fittest in the animal world in order to avoid hunger and death through brutal and violent physical means. In man’s world, man have evolved to become more inteligent and civil brought by universal laws of human rights and civil liberties. The more civilised world man allows man to use his mental faculties to move forward in a civilised manner amidst great challenges.
Hence showing animalistic attitude and character will not be accetable in a civilised siciety.
6.Thoughtful
Words like pen(writings) are mightier than sword and hence good leaders should seek more wisdom to be thoughtful such as be more understanding of the difficulties and problems faced by the people.
This character is one of the virtue that is most difficult to attain or to be trained because this virtue must be instilled to us by our parents or guardians from the very young age and is not something we are borned with or inherited.However we must not confused ourselves with leaders who practice or introduce popular policies for their own selfish and narrow political agenda to remain in power.These leaders though may be accepted by certain group,will set back the development of the country as a whole.Malaysia by constitution is a secular country as envision by the founder leaders of Malaysia (comprising leaders of all races with different religous and cultural background) and hence efforts by PAS to change the constitution so as Malaysia is an Islamic State will not be acceptable by most Malaysians irrespective of their political thoughts, races,religion and cultures.However most Malaysians will not mind if Islamics policies are introduces to regulate their Islamic faiths as long as it does infringes the rights and sensitivities of non-muslims.Hence in PR, a strong DAP presence is needed to countercheck any adventurism by both PAS and UMNO leaders bent on introducing more Islamic policies to further their political ambitions.
7.Caring
Caring for someone or neighbour is like loving them as your own family.Love without preconditions will bring about an environment which is more happy or joyful and less stressful society.Leaders knows that true peace is the yardstick to measure id the society is a caring one and hence leaders who can bring about true peace in a society is a testimony of a good and just leadership.
8. Humble
Good leaders know that it is imperative to show a humble attitude though one may have the political and monetary power because statistics shown that the rich and powerful comprises about 5% or less of the country population.To flaunt one’s power and wealth, these leaders are percieved to be arrogant or higher class by the masses who by nature rejects such groups who they blamed for their lacks.Leaders who shown humble are usually sensitive to the feelings of the masses and easily identifiable with the needs and thinkings of the masses.Sadly speaking political leaders from BN and in a lesser degree PR leaders are insensitive to Malaysian people as a whole through their actions.
9.Man of honor
Sadly speaking, most of our political leaders lack honor.Honor is integrity and respect with responsibility.In Japan, honor is a very serious form of code of living.Hence in ancient Japan,if a minister fails in his duty, he becomes dishonor and loses the respect of the people, he is duty bound to commit suicide. This practice has been outlawed and replaced by voluntary resignation and retirement from office.
Even in western countries, this form of code of living are being practised
and hence I hope the Malaysian leaders will accept this code of living to restore integrity and respect by the people and that the leaders must be responsible for their behavior and actions.For Malaysians to move forward to next level of maturity, we must include honor as part of our Malaysian culture and upbringing.In fact many BN leaders lost in the last general election because of their failures to unite the country and failures to meet expectations of Malaysians and it would be face saving if these failed leaders stepped down before General Election to accept the responsibility to meet the people expectations instead of waiting to be voted out.
The results of the MCA EGM shows that the central delegates votes according along the lines of allegiance to their leaders and not according to the expectations of the people.Although the EGM is held to resolve the internal divisions and disunity in the party, the central delegates should have te wisdoms that their vote of non- confidence in their President would put the survival of the party and trust of the people at stakes.In politics, a strongman or strong leadership will help to shape the future and destiny of the party and it cannot have disunited leadership and compromise in principle is not an option. On the basis of principle, the President should resign unconditionally if he received a vote of no confidence.The margin of non-confidence is a non issue.Some may argue that the President legally need not resign under the Party constitution.Which is more significant – Good Principle or Party Constitution or Laws? I am of the belief a leader good or bad cannot hide behind the man-made party constitution or laws which are of no significant standings against the universal good principles.Hence leaders holding public office must step aside should the public have strong perception of failing to uphold good principles or under serious allegations of committing breach of trust, morality and corruption.
The election victory by Mohd Isa of UMNO shows that the voters have voted along the line of allegence to him and not on the basis of good principles.This is a setback to the reformation of UMNO and maturity of the Malaysian Politics.It appears that the chase for political power and influence for political short sightedness and personal interest still remains part of the Malaysian Politics and the people can now pray and hope that Pakatan Rayaat is relevant by recognising that political power and influence are used for the benefit and well being of the people and that tainted and opportunistic leaders in PR are weeded out in order to strengthen the party and administration of states under their control.
Athough there may be other good characters not mentioned above, I believe Malaysia can achieve a developed country status if our leaders who have the above characters can lead and guide the people to change for the better future for the people is key to the success, peace and development of the country.

TURMOIL AHEAD !!! (PART 3)

During a ferocious storm, the huge waves slammed into a boat.The boat now finds difficulty in staying afloat in the storm.The boat was loaded with the riches of the world and the captain had to find solution and decide quickly what must be done to keep the boat afloat with great concern for the survival of the boat’s crew. In the end, the captain ordered one quarter of the riches to be thrown overboard but to no avail, the boat is taking in more water from the huge waves. Again the captain ordered more riches to be thrown overboard and by the time the boat has become more calm, the remaining riches had been reduced to a very low level. The riches thrown overboard represents the material things or debts being accumulated by the man during his lifetime to build up his wealth and the boat represents his means available to accumulate the materials things or debts.
Based on the above story, the boat built by man must be big and strong so that it can sail through the storm with its cargo and hence if your boat is small, do not overload or overstretch your available resources because the boat will simply be overloaded.Should the storm come, the boat will be vulnerable to sinking.
To put it in a simple way, man should not overburden with too many debts and that the purchase of non essential and non basic items should be controlled or deferred.
In these difficult and time of turmoils, man must preserve liquidity and productive assets to look for opportinity to invest in assets that are beaten down in value which will rise up again when the economy recover.
In these time, man should take advantage of low prices to increase his investments such as in equity, properties well sought for, trading stocks, acquisitions & mergers, renovations or refurbishments, staff training,acquisition of machineries, purchase or trade in for new vehicles etc. In fact it is the opportune time to make preparation to expand business activity and to be ahead of the pack when the economy picks up because there is always a time lag for it to come to past.
In Stock market, the market will not definitely head south for 365 days in 2009 and during the year you will see the stocks plunge, consolidate and rally upwards not neccessarily in this order but by the end of 2009 there is a good possibility that stock indices will be much higher than the end 2008. But then again, rises or falls in stock indices does not necessarily tranlates into higher or lower stock prices because we need to consider the quality, fundamental and track record of the individual stock.
In manufacturing sector whether it depends on foreign or local orders,it is vunerable to market demands and it is generally accepted that the pick up in this sector is at best expected in the last quarter barring further declines in the market demand in American continent, UK, Europe, China,India and Japan.
In the service sector especially the hospitality service and tourism industry will be affected mainly due to increasing oil prices though not the high level seen in 2008 and the H1N1 flu which are spreading unabated and have reached the highest alert level.The local tourism will also be boost by tourists who prefer tourism packages that are cheaper resulting in more tourists from neighbouring countries or those tourists who normally prefer holiday packages in Europe, Uk and US will now choose Asian destinations due to budget constraints.
The housing construction will be in for a slow down and only selective new housing scheme will be launched in 2009 depending on the location, housing concept and class of buyers that are not significantly affected by the recession.For highrise office and shopping mall, one will expected these constructions to be more selective and hence the growth in this sector will be slowed down till the last quarter of the year.The Malaysian Government stimulus to stimulate the country economy through building of schools, low – medium cost housing and infrastructure works such as construction of new LRTs and bridges will help to cushion the effects of recession by the last quarter.
On the country GDP growth, the 1st half may see a negative growth of 4 %- 5% and may bottom out in the 3rd quarter with a negative growth of up to 3% in the 3 quarter and thereafter the country GDP is expected to suffer a negative growth of 1% in the final quarter.The above forecast are based on the following factors:
1.Economy in the United States is expected to stabilise in second half of the year after the release of the yearly financial reports by major international corporations which have established world wide presence such as Macdonald, Citi Group, Bank of America, GM, IBM, Microsoft and etc.The released results in the 2nd quarter have shown that these companies remain profitable or their losses are under control.
2.Huge economy rescue package introduced in United States in 1st quarter to strengthen the financial institutions will see its effects having a positive result in the second half of the year.
3.Huge economy stimulus by China announced recently will
kick-start the economy and help the country to maintain its GDP growth of 8% for 2009. Construction sector in China appears to be the main sector that will spearhead the growth of the country
4.The price of crude oil and commodities have bottom out in March 2009 and shall see a gradual recovery in prices as consumers confidence returns and the factories may see increase in orders for restocking and export as the inventories reduces and demand increases.
5.The surging prices in the world equity market from March 2009 to todate have created new wealth or restore wealth that have plunged since the financial turmoils started in 2007. The new wealth or restored wealth will help to stabilise the financial markets and also increase the confidence to all sectors of the economy.Currently the turmoils in the financial sectors have stabilised and are able to overcome the credit crunch.
6.The rate of employment have slowed down in most countries while some have shown that the unemployment rate have stabilised in the 3rd quarter. This statistics have fuelled the concensus that the Financial Turmoils have stabilised and will be in the recovery mode in the 4th quarter.

Based on the above, I can conclude that the Financial Turmoils have hit the bottom and is now in the recovery mode.The strength of the recovery varies from one country to another. Although the Asian countries appear to lead the recovery at a faster rate than the American economy but the sustainability of the fast recovery rate by Asian economies depend on strength of US recovery rate in 2010 – 2011 period.

BOOST UP MALAYSIAN ECONOMY ACTIVITIES IN 4Q 2008 !!!

When I am writing this blog, the year 2008 still have 2 1/2 months before the year ends and during this period the financial crisis has hit the world. The number of countries that are in recession technicaly is on the rise and the global economic leadership under United States is under intense economic and political pressure to stabilise its financial economy health. Many analyst believe United States are already in recession but large number of economic reports and data churned out tended to cloud the truth and the government itself are in denial state.
Malaysian economy activity since 3Q of 2007 has been on a gradual decline due to rising costs and inflationary pressures caused by rising commodities prices such as Oil and Palm oil.Surging oil prices peaked sometimes in August 2008 and this has resulted in price increase of petrol and diesel by almost 40% in June 2008.Malaysian government move to increase petrol and diesel by 40% is a big blunder and not well thought of before the implementation. It brings about the domino effect on almost all food, consumer and industrial products, raw materials, transportation, services etc resulting in the slowing down of economic activities due to rising cost, squeeze on the marginal profits , postponement of new projects ,abandoning of projects that are no longer viable, rising unemployment and crimes.
If the government have staggered the price increase, the government could have saved special subsidy payment of RM625.00 for every vehicle and lessen the domino effect of the price increase in petrol and diesel.
To boost malaysian economy activities, the public and private sector must join hands to create and boost domestic and foreign demand for goods and services. The year-end mega sale is a good platform to create and boost domestic and foreign demand for Malaysian goods and services. The outlook for 2009 Malaysian economy is bleak and gloomy and hence there will be market pressure on the prices as well as profit margin.To a businessmen, a large and excessive inventories represents missed sales and incurred holding costs that undermined the business viabililty and cashflow. In hard times, cash reserves is a better option than credit and hence the businessmen should focus to build up cash reserves by reducing inventories and increasing sales. Towards these ends, it will be wise to reduce year end inventories to the minimal by promoting sales through great discounts or gifts inducements or both and temporarily suspended or reduce purchases to the minimal during the last 2 months of the year.The other benefits of reducing sales may be getting rid of goods that are obsolete or fast changing in technology to reduce inventory write-off that are considered losses to the businessmen and at the same time help to promote the business entity presence in the market thus economize on the advertisement budget.The consumers on the other hand benefits from the great discounts recieved and tend to increase spending to increase savings for these goods such as clothings, household items like toilet roll,tissue papers, washing powder etc,personal care products such as Shampoo, soaps,toothbrushes, tooth paste etc, shoes and others.
Should the mega sales have been well and efficiently organised, it should be well recieved and a huge success that will help the business to build up a healthy cash reserves.In addition the effect of the reduction in purchases in the 4Q will help to effect the reduction of prices of goods and services in 1Q of 2009 and consequently help to ease the inflationary pressure in the country economy for the year 2009.
Similarly for the export market, the business entities in Malaysia must do likewise to boost or expedite delivery to overseas clients in 4Q of 2008.Delays in deliveries to overseas clients may result in cancellation of orders in view of the fast deteriorating overseas market environment.
Outgoing Malaysian fund to overseas through travelling abroad especially during the peak tourism season in the months of November and December will also poses a threat to country reserves and also a drain on our savings. The foreign tourists find difficulty in making air travel bookings to Malaysia because while they are able to find seats for the journey to Malaysia, they find it very difficult to find seats for the return journey because a great number of these seats are taken up by Malaysians travelling overseas.Unless there is a need for travelling overseas during the year end, the large increase in influx of foreign tourists into Malaysia in 4Q will certainly help to boost the Malaysian tourism but also help to boost the Malaysian economy activities inQ of 2008.
If we are able to accomplish in boosting the Malaysian Economy Activities in 4Q of 2008, the momentum of the increased economy activities of 2008 will be carried into the year 2009.
In the year 2009, the economy acitivities will be boosted by new purchasing orders by companies when their inventories are reduced to low levels.Secondly the prices of the goods ordered for resale would have droped due to declining raw materials price or services.Thirdly with the contiuing fast changing technology and manufacturing processes, the goods and services in 2009 would be able to compete in the domestic and world market.Fourthly increase in unemployment could be averted when the businesses survived in the current global financial crisis by building up their cash reserves, reducing inventory level to the minimal and keeping abreast with the new changes in products and services.
In conclusion, Malaysian economy activities must be boosted and geared up in domestic and foreign market to safegard Malaysian economy from falling into recession.The proposals above are not comprehensive and Malaysian government could introduce other measures such as reducing the quota of the foreign workers to reduce the outflow of fund from Malaysia and to inprove security and safety environment which are detering foreign investment in Malaysia.

TURMOILS AHEAD !!! (PART 2)

Since my previous posting of Turmoils Ahead (Part 1), the American Financial Crisis has deteriorated to almost Global Financial Crisis affecting economies of United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Russia,Australia, India, China, Japan and South East Asian countries. Surprising this Financial Crisis has not significantly impacted the African continent and this I believe is due to low level of financial investments in Africa and hence the financial connectivity with the the western financial institutions is at a very lower level. Africa is unable to draw large investments from the western countries due to relatively unstable political system, underdeveloped financial systems, widespread corruption and lack of developments.
The turmoils that are happening is part of the sign of the end of Age and this was foretold to us 2000 years ago.
Luke 21.9 from the Holy Bible reads “When you hear of wars and revolutions, do not be frightened.These things must happened first,but the end will not come right away”
Luke 21.10-11 from the Holy Bible reads” Nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom.There will be great earthquakes, famines and petilences in various places and fearful events and great signs from heaven”
Like 21.20-21 from Holy Bible reads ” When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies,you will know its desolation is near.Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those in the city get out and let those in the country not enter the city”
These are signs of the end of the Age according to Holy Bible and these are words foretold to us by our Lord Jesus and recorded by Apostle Luke and these similar words are collaborated and repeated in the books of Mark 13.
These signs and event will come to past whether in the near or distance future, no one knows accept God Himself for the phophesy of the second coming of the Lord Jesus Christ to come true.
Another evidence is the spiritual revival and rapid spread of the gospel of Jesus Christ throughout the world resulting in the collapse of Communist governments in the Soviet Union, the fall of Berlin Wall and more open Communist Government of China.The gospel of Jesus Christ are spreading over these countries through numerous media such as radio , books, evangelism and cyberspace.In tandem with these events, the persecution of Christians and the attacks on the Church seem to be on the increase and more intense due to spiritual war wage by Satan and his demons on those who have accepted Lord Jesus Christ as their saviour.
In Part 3 of the Turmoil Ahead !!! I will touch on the possible signs of the end of the current global financial crisis and its impact.

TURMOILS AHEAD !!!(Part 1)

The year 2008 started with rosy predictions of prosperity and peace for the world. Todate There have been at least 6 major quakes which occurred in China, Japan, Indonesia, South America, Russia and Phillipines. Heavy torrential storms and hurricanes hit United States, Vietnam, China, Hongkong, Haiti, Jaimaica,Cuba, Taiwan, Bangladesh and India causing major floods, damage to crops, properties and loss of human lives.In addition to high incidences of natural calamities, great financial turmol hit world markets resulting in collapse of well established financial institutions and mortgage linked companies.It is a reasonable estimate that losses of wealth incurred globally within the last 8 months could be in USD trillions and the after effects have yet to be evaluated. Hundred of thousands of companies could be affected and the unemployment could soar to at least 20%- 30% of the working force.Compounding these turmoils, inflation also soared to the highest level in a decade brought about by soaring oil prices resulting in significant price increases for commodities such as rice, cooking oil, flour etc and non-commodities such as petrol & diesel, building materials, transportation, raw materials for manufacturing etc.The crime rates soars in tandem with the worsening economies and this in turn affects the business environments and productivity.Political stability of many developing and poor countries were affected and undermined because of worsening inflation and economy.In addition to the above, civil wars have erupted in Georgia and Zimbabwe causing widespread damage and loss of lives and damage to economy.
The turmoils we are facing now have been foretold to us but we choose not to believe that these turmoils that have begun will happen to us.I will disclose in Part 2 that where and when the turmoils have been foretold to us and what our future holds.
The American Financial Crisis that have happened recently may seem to be extension of the Asian Financial Crisis that took place in 1997 and definitely it will not be the last financial crisis.

MAN ARE NO GOD

Man are created in the image of God by the will of God who is also the creator of the earth and all creatures in it and the universe. Since Man are created in the image of God by the will of God hence it is not surprising that every man created possess his or her own free will to live his or her own life according to his or her choices of decision .Man are distinquished from other animals not only by free will to choose his or her lifestyle but also a human brain which is much more powerful and complicated.The human brain consists of left brain which relates to creativity,visual and pleasure while the right brain relates to memory and logical thinking.The other animal lives to eat for survival and do not possess the vital free will to decide.Since man is created in the womb of an woman by God,then man is no God nor greater than God.Some scientist claims man are evolved from apes which have some semblance of man but absence of the characteristic free will I believed ruled out that possibility.

God speaks to his man through messengers and phophets and his words becomes Laws that teaches us to love one another and to rejects actions or words that incite violence or evil doings.The original purposes of the Laws were changed by man as civilisation passes by to suits man purposes such as ambition and greed and not according to God’s purposes. Man used these Laws in the name of God to wage war and violence for their own selfishness so much so God detest these Laws Himself.

Religions were established by man so as to guide their fellow man to the path of righteousness and to teach man to love each other as man loves unto God.The events from the past till todays that man used religion for their own selfish needs be it by politicians, students, professionals, religion experts,academicians down to the ordinary man.Because each man thinks or understand things differently, it is impossible to have same understanding of one thing by man unless man humbled or put himself below God or acknowledge God as his master that man should seek God first before all things so as to allow God’s wisdom to manifest in man in order that the carnal desires or thinkings be put away.From these things, man will find hope in God to provide all man’s needs be it financially,relationship or illnesses.

Why do wars, hatred and violence occurred over the issue of religion? Doesn’t every religion or faith teaches us to love fellow human beings irrespective of their professed religion, races and culture? Can the prococateurs or advocates of championing one’s religion or faith confesse or declare in the name of God that God has approved his actions in order His religion or faith will not destroyed so that God can have all his glory?Of course not, God is almighty and definitely God can deal with His detractors with ease and does not require the help of man to win his battle with the evils or the wicked.God has created His own spiritual armies or angels to carry out his commands therefore it is foolish or insulting to God to think that God needs human help to deal with His detractors.

God has spoken to man through his messengers or prophets in order His words will guide the man to lead a life that is good or pleasing to God through obedience of God’s teachings. The original God’s teaching to exalt man to love and live peacefully and righteously with fellow man have been intepreted by man for his own selfish needs and wicked schemes to seek power and self greed.Over the times, the religion becomes tools of man for his own selfish needs and glory.
Man has appointed themselves as teachers of respective faiths or religions and many of them are “false” teachers used by enemies of God or satans & their demons. Many man are decieved because man cannot recognise or see the satans & their demons who have taken over the minds of these “false” teachers who can appear religious or pious in their faiths. Man only protection against satans and demons comes from his acceptance of God’s invitation to man to be His children and therefore God will not allow satans and his demons to harm His children.

God is glorified when He see that His creations worship and acknowledged Him as his creator and master of his life through unconditional and selfless obedience to his will because only man is given the free will to make that choice of whether to do it or not.All other creations including the winds and the seas obey Him.Since God is a sovereign God, He accepts our choices but without compromising His heavenly principals and by saying so He makes it clear only those that acknowledged and accept Him will be received by Him while those who reject Him will be rejected by Him. In short God has allow man to be master of his destiny without coersion and compulsion and that man will be responsible for his own actions and consequences on earth and after life.

In the begining Laws whether it relates to religion or not are enacted by man to guide and to remind man as to what morals,behaviour and doings were acceptable or non acceptable to God but as man rejects God teachings, Laws were modified whether it relates to religion or not to guide man and to remind man as to what morals,behaviour and doings are acceptable or non acceptable to Man.Consequently God’s words were confined to religious teachings in Churches, Temples, Mosques and religion classes. Surely with that, Man has surplant God as gods of earth because Man become the judge to decide what is acceptable or not acceptable to God in relation to morals,behaviours, doings and even God’s words.

Man must withdraw from their role of gods of earth and restore that godly role to God.Man role is to obey God’s command and teachings to love fellow human beings and to live peacefully and obediently unto God’s teaching.Matters relating to spiritual battle for supremacy and glory should best be left to God himself to resolve in the spiritual realm for God has His own resources to deal with it. It is of no value nor it brings glory to God if man were to decide what is acceptable or not acceptable to God.

In conclusion, man should be man submit to God’s desire purpose for us to love and to live in peace with fellow human irrespective of our race , languages, belief or faith,culture and education background.Man must return to the basics that of the original purpose of our creation because we must ask ourselves are we being created so as to defy God’s will and to destoy one another for man’s selfishness,glory,greed and authority on earth?

SOME SUGGESTIONS TO RESOLVE THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT PROBLEMS

We must study the roots and causes that have resulted in a large population of illegal immigrants in Sabah. Are all these illegal immigrants really illegal immigrants ? I recollect that in the last 30 years the Phillipines were emboiled in the fights with the communists in the northern part and fighting against muslim seccessionist in the south. Since the southern Phillipines are near to Sabah, many civilians from the Southern Phillipines fled to Sabah to escape the fightings. As of todate the Phillipines government does not have full control over the Southern part of Phillipines and of course the refugees still remain in Sabah.After 30 years, these refugees must have treated Sabah as their second home and on humanitarian grounds we can’t force these refugees to return to their homeland.
The Malaysian government must honestly accorded protection and their rights as refugees to these genuine refugees under International Laws.
The Federal and the Sabah state government should take the following 5 measures to reduce and control the population of illegal immigrants and the refugees.
1. RESETTLE THE REFUGEES
The Federal Government have the experience of resettling the Vietnamese refugees after their mass exodus from the advancing Hanoi troops more than 40 years ago although the resettlement was less than satisfactory under the International laws but nevertheless the objectives to resettle them in Malaysia until their repatriation to Vietnam or countries which are willing to accept them.During that time, the Federal Government had set up a refugee camp on an offshore island on which various facilities such as housing, tents,clinic,electricity,water ,polis stations and school were provided.
Similarly Federal and Sabah state government can set up a refugee home on at least two island which are inhabitable and can provide sufficient land to build temporary housing such as longhouses,clinics,setting up of electricity power stations and water reservoir,setting up of polis, immigration & government departments that oversee the security and the needs of the refugees, setting up of schools for the children and adults and construction of shops and stalls for them to conduct businesses or tradings. The refugees should also be encouraged to do farming and poultry rearing for them to earn a living.
Since the proposed development of the islands for resettling of refugees will required a huge capital investment, the Federal government and Sabah state government must invite the Phillipines and the Indonesian government to be involved in the resettling of the refugees who fled their countries.
Malaysia may provide the land for resettlement and provision of services such as electricity,clean water and security while Indonesia and Phillipines may contribute to setting up of schools and services of school teachers and administrators,setting up of clinics to took after the well-being and healthcare of their citizens/PRs, setting up of fund for the their citizens to venture into small businesses or home-based industries to enable them to earn a living.
The private sectors from Malaysia, Indonesia and Phillipines may contribute by setting up labour intensive industries and financial services on the island so that these refugees may find employment.
As a whole we are relocating them to these islands without much disruption to their livelihood.
2)ISSUE IDENTIFICATION CARDS TO REFUGEES
Immediately after the relocation exercise for the refugees, carry out a thorough population census on the refugees to weed out the illegal immigrants amongst the refugees.On completion of the census, issue an identification cards to the refugees.
3)REVIEW THE POLICIES ON THE EMPLOYMENT OF FOREIGNERS
A) The stay of a foreign worker must not exceeded 1 year and foreign worker must leave Sabah and re-enter Sabah.The work permit will be renewed upon fufilling this condition as evidenced by the endorsement of the Malaysian Immigration that the foreign worker had departed upon expiry of the permitted length of stay in Sabah and have subsequently re-enter Sabah on tourist pass.The foreign worker must within the permitted length of stay under the tourist pass re-apply for work permit failing which he or she will be declared an illegal immigrant.
B)Set a quota for foreign workers in all states of Malaysia
According to statistics from Immigration Department, there are 2.5 million migrant workers and 40,000 refugees in Malaysia and it is estimated that of the 2.5 million migrant workers, more than 1 million have overstayed and classified as illegal migrant workers. The total migrant workers in Malaysia represents more than 10% of the Malaysians who are working in the country. The lack of enforcements, corruptions in the Government agencies and greedy businessmen, political influence and corruptions and ineffective government policies resulted in the lack of control over migrant workers, rising cimes committed by black sheeps in the migrant working force and social problems posed by the presence of migrant workers.
To combat these problems, set a quota of migrant workers that should not exceed 5% of the Malaysian working population in every states.
C)CONTRIBUTION TO LEVY FUND
All migrant workers and their employers must contribute to a levy fund to be set under the Ministry of Human Resources.The purpose of the refundable levy is to allow the migrant workers who ceased employment to receive the levy to resolve many cases of victimisation of foreign workers by the unscrupulous employers.This may also discourage foreign workers to enter illegally into the country to seek employment as this levy scheme will only benefit legal migrant workers.
D)FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY UNDER HUMAN RESOURCE MINISTRY TO HIRE FOREIGN WORKERS
Stop the outsourcing of foreign workers (other than house maids) to private employment or recruitment agencies.With one stop centre, the Malaysian government is in a better position to monitor and control the hiring of foreign workers.Under the present system, the monitoring of foreign workers by private recruitment agencies are much less satisfactory because these agencies looks at profitability and are not willing to incur more cost to monitor the foreign workers to ensure they complied with the conditions of their work permits.
4) Continous Enforcement and monitoring by Enforcement agencies.
All state governments must set up a department to enforce compliance by foreign workers with the conditions of their work permits. A direct line be set up to allow the public to provide information of non-compliances so as to deport the foreign workers who overstayed or breached the conditions of the their work permit or suspected foreign workers involved in illegal activities.The enforcement agencies must set a new and separate enforcement units seconded from the police, army,rela and immigration dept to carry out enforcement and monitoring workson the foreign workers. Such units must be stationed in all states in order to carry out effective encorcements.
5) Barring foreign workers with criminal records from re-entering Malaysia
Foreign workers who have committed crimes must be deported to their homeland after serving their sentences in Malaysia.These foreign workers with criminal records in Malaysia or known to have criminal records in other countries must be blacklisted and barred from entering Malaysia.The updating and dissemination of the criminal records must be efficient to meet the purposes of barring foreign workers with criminal records from entering or re-entering Malaysia.
6)Issue of Distinct Identification Cards for Foreign Workers identified by skill category
The purpose of hiring foreign workers are mainly to meet the lack of both skilled and unskilled workers in certain economy sectors for example the construction workers, agriculture workers,the house maids, trained doctors and nurses etc.
By issuing the identification cards, the enforcement officers and the public can easily verified the foreign workers whether they have complied with the conditions of their work permits.
The identification card should contain the following informations for verification purposes:
a)Name of Foreign worker
b)Country of origin
c)Passport references
d)Date of entry
e)Length of stay
f)Name of Employer
g)Address & contact No of Employer
h)Photograph of foreign work printed on the identification card
The identification card must be carried by the foreign worker failing which they will be classified as illegal foreign worker and deported from the country within a week.

The above suggestions although not comprehensive but I believed will be of a help to reduce and control the increasing population of illegal immigrant workers.

INVESTOR CONFIDENCE IN KLSE MUST BE RESTORED

Bursa Malaysia commonly known as Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange commenced trading in 1960 under the name of Malayan Stock Exchange which later changed its name to Malaysian Stock Exchange in 1964. In 1984 it was rename Bursa Malaysia after the demutualisation of stock trading of Malaysian stocks in Singapore Stock Exchange.
KLSE has commenced trading since 1960 and so it is not a new player in the securities industry and certainly the investors placed their confidence and trust in KLSE which is one of the top Asian Stock Exchange until 3 July 2008. Prior to 3 July 2008, KLSE did experience technical glitches for a short periods not exceeding 1 trading session either in the morning or afternoon.
The timing of the technical glitches coincided with the day where a shocking political revelation had placed great pressure on the ruling BN. Can it be a coincidence or is it an attempt to shut down KLSE to prevent the selling spree by the foreign and local institutitional funds?
KLSE being an institution of great financial significance and pride to our beloved country, Malaysia can ill afford to be incompetent to undermine the confidence of both the local and foreign investors. The closure of KLSE for the whole trading day made history not only in the local financial community and maybe the first stock exchange that shut down for the whole trading day due to technical glitches in the world.
The KLSE should have immediately called a public press conference during the morning trading session when it is evident that technical glitches can not be resolved before the ending of the morning trading session.At the press conference KLSE should have given assurance that the investors interest and rights are protected and outlined measures and steps to contain financial losses suffered by the investors by addressing the effects of declaring 3 July 2008 as a non-trading days and its effects on payments and receipts by the investors. Secondly KLSE must admit her liability for losses that cannot be addressed conventionally and gave assurance that compensation will be made.I believe that KLSE is insured against professional negligence and so compensation from government fund does not arise.
The position of the top officers and KLSE’s board of directors are no longer tenable for the investors has lost confidence in its management and therefore they should submit their resignations to the Finance Minister to take full responsibilty for technical glitches. No excuses true or false are acceptable because financial losses resulting from loss of investors and tarnish of the country image are not measurable and the government must act immediately to install new management to resolve the problem permanently and without fail.Failure of the government to do so only reflects the present government is a weak administration that is unable to rectify the weaknesses in the delivery system

IS THERE A MASTERMIND BEHIND A NEW SODOMY ALLEGATION AGAINST ANWAR IBRAHIM?

According to newspaper report the complainant had lodged a police report against Anwar Ibrahim yesterday (28/6/08) that he was sodomised by Anwar Ibrahim. The complainant aged 23 years old had joined PKR 3 months ago to help PKR in the Malaysian March08 General Election.
Anwar Ibrahim a former deputy PM to former PM Dr Mahathir was previously charged and jailed on a sodomy charge after his dimisal grom the government post by former PM. At that time it was a struggle for political survival for the top 2 leaders and Anwar Ibrahim upon his dismisal call for political reforms against the ruling parties. Soon a sodomy charge was made against Anwar Ibrahim for sodomising his former chauffer. He was found quilty as charged and sent to jail and forbidden to be active in politics for a certain period after his release.
In March 08 General Election, PKR a political founded by him after his dismisal from government, won the control of the State Government in Selangor, Perak, Kedah with his political allies DAP and PAS, he becomes the de facto leader of Pakatan Raayat that comprises of Selangor, Kedah, Kelantan, Penang and Perak.
If Anwar Ibrahim had learnt his lessons from the past episode, then he will be careful and cautious of his actions because his political enemies are many within and outside his party.
A common saying that a wounded tiger is much more dangerous is true and though his political enemies had suffered defeat and humiliation at the last general election, they will retaliate with vengence through wicked schemes.
However I believed PM is not behind this wicked scheme because of his character and principles he believed and shared and further he has nothing to gain from the wicked scheme.
I believed that the mastermind or masterminds behind this wicked scheme had personal vendetta against Anwar Ibrahim with the purpose of preventing him from becoming the next PM and destroying his political future. The complainant could be a plant by his political enemies as part of a conspiracy to shut him off from the political platform or could be part of an assassination plan against him. If the BN is to be absolved from allegations that it is involved, it must ensure that Anwar and his family’s safety. Anwar Ibrahim is a public figure and have a good standing amongst the Malaysian and well respected abroad and therefore he is no ordinary person and hence respect and dignity must be accorded to him as a former PM and the leader of Pakatan Raayat.The truth will be unveiled after this whole episode had been properly investigated fairly and transparently. If the allegation is found untrue, the mastermind or masterminds must be exposed by the authority if the government and the police force is to remain credible and neutral in the eyes of the whole country. The police must be and seen apolitical to investigate from all angles including the conspiracy to asssssinate or to kill his political future and not repeat the 1998 episode when the ex-Police Chief is found quilty of torturing him. I do fear for him because of what he had gone through during imprisonment, he have his reasons of not trusting the police force and even the present attorney general who was the chief government prosecutor during his trial.The present attorney general should not be involved in this matter because he may be biased against Anwar Ibrahim and similarly all judges involved in his previous trial must excused from the new trial if called for.
Therefore PM,the police force and the judicial must handle this matter without fear, bias, fairly and transparently with safeguards to their individual rights to investigate the mastermind or masterminds behind the conspiracy. The outcome of this case will determine the political maturity,judicial independence and the future of the country. The whole world is watching the Malaysian drama and we Malaysian are all involved in it.